Global Glaucoma Prevalence: Burden and Projection to 2060.
Wang Ziyao, Xue Can Can, Li Yiman, Wu You, Pan Zhe, Li Fan, Cheung Carol Y, Ohno-Matsui Kyoko, Friedman David S, Garway-Heath David
AI Summary
Global OAG prevalence will nearly triple by 2060, reaching 192.7 million, largely driven by the myopia epidemic. This necessitates myopia prevention and targeted OAG screening, especially in younger populations and high-myopia regions.
Abstract
Purpose
To provide updated global and regional estimates of the prevalence and population burden of open-angle glaucoma (OAG), incorporating both demographic aging and the rising prevalence of myopia-a major risk factor that accelerates onset and increases OAG risk.
Design
Systematic review, meta-analysis, and global projection study.
Methods
A systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO: CRD42024520990) of 77 population-based publications (1991-2023) were conducted to estimate current age- and region-specific OAG prevalence across Global Burden of Disease regions. OAG prevalence in 2060 was modeled based on associated risk ratios (RR: 1.9 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.7-2.1]) and myopia trends synthesized from 57 publications. United Nations population data were integrated to estimate the affected population. Early-onset OAG (20-39 years) in 2060, attributable to high myopia, was estimated separately using projected high myopia prevalence and a pooled OAG prevalence of 4.4% (95% CI, 3.5%-5.3%) in this highly myopic younger population.
Results
Global OAG prevalence (≥40 years) is expected to rise from 2.8% (95% CI, 2.6%-3.0%) in 2024 to 3.5% (95% CI, 3.2%-3.8%) by 2060, with the affected population increasing from 80.5 (95% CI, 75.4-85.6) million to 186.6 (95% CI, 174.3-199.0) million. Aging and demographic changes account for an increase to 77.3 million, leaving the additional 28.9 million cases (27.2% of the total increase) attributed to the myopia epidemic. An estimated 6.1 (95% CI, 5.5-6.7) million early-onset OAG cases due to high myopia will bring the total global OAG population to 192.7 (95% CI, 180.4-205.1) million by 2060. East Asia will experience the greatest relative increase, with prevalence rising by 50.5% from 2.3% (95% CI, 1.8%-2.8%) to 3.4% (95% CI, 2.7%-4.2%).
Conclusions
There is a significant, previously underestimated, increase in OAG burden globally, driven by the rising prevalence of myopia. This adds additional OAG burden, particularly to younger populations less than 40 years. Thus, myopia prevention and new targeted screening strategies are important to tackle OAG, especially in regions with a high prevalence of myopia.
MeSH Terms
Key Concepts6
Global open-angle glaucoma (OAG) prevalence (age ≥40 years) is projected to increase from 2.8% (95% CI, 2.6%-3.0%) in 2024 to 3.5% (95% CI, 3.2%-3.8%) by 2060.
The global population affected by open-angle glaucoma (OAG) is estimated to increase from 80.5 (95% CI, 75.4-85.6) million in 2024 to 186.6 (95% CI, 174.3-199.0) million by 2060.
An additional 28.9 million open-angle glaucoma (OAG) cases by 2060 (27.2% of the total increase) are attributed to the myopia epidemic, beyond the 77.3 million increase due to aging and demographic changes.
An estimated 6.1 (95% CI, 5.5-6.7) million early-onset open-angle glaucoma (OAG) cases due to high myopia will contribute to a total global OAG population of 192.7 (95% CI, 180.4-205.1) million by 2060.
East Asia is projected to experience the greatest relative increase in open-angle glaucoma (OAG) prevalence, rising by 50.5% from 2.3% (95% CI, 1.8%-2.8%) to 3.4% (95% CI, 2.7%-4.2%) by 2060.
The pooled open-angle glaucoma (OAG) prevalence in a highly myopic younger population (20-39 years) was estimated at 4.4% (95% CI, 3.5%-5.3%).
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